2020-06-29
137
Economic and Social Development in 2019
The year 2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, and it is a crucial year for bringing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects to a successful completion and thus realizing our first Centenary Goal. Therefore it is of great importance that we accomplish all economic and social development work for the year.
General Requirements
In 2019, we must follow the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core and the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. We must fully implement the guiding principles from the 19th CPC National Congress and the second and third plenary sessions of the 19th Party Central Committee, and coordinate efforts to pursue the five-sphere integrated plan and the four-pronged comprehensive strategy.
We must stay committed to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, to the new development philosophy, and to promoting high-quality development. Keeping supply-side structural reform as our main task, we must deepen market-based reforms, expand high-standard opening up, and speed up our efforts to develop a modernized economy.
We need to ensure continued success in the critical battles against potential risk, poverty, and pollution and, with strong moves, unlock the vitality of our micro entities. We need to develop new and improved approaches to macro regulation, and take coordinated steps to achieve steady growth, advance reform, make structural adjustments, improve living standards, guard against risk, and ensure stability. We must keep major economic indicators within an appropriate range and work to ensure stability in employment, financial operations, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment, and expectations.
We need to bolster market confidence, see that our people feel more satisfied, happier, and more secure, and ensure sustained, healthy economic development and overall social stability. In meeting these requirements, we will lay a decisive foundation for completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects and celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China with outstanding achievements.
In undertaking specific work, we must keep firmly in mind the guiding principles from the Central Economic Work Conference, grasp the significance of the current important period of strategic opportunity, and remain committed to the following five missions:
First, pursuing supply-side structural reform as our main task. We need to implement more reforms and employ more approaches consistent with market principles and the rule of law. We must work hard to consolidate the gains made in the five priority tasks,* to strengthen the dynamism of micro entities, to upgrade industrial chains, and to ensure unimpeded flows in the economy. These efforts would help boost the quality of our supply systems.
Second, promoting high-quality development. We should employ a complete set of indicators to provide guidance on high-quality development, move faster to develop a modernized economy, step up implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy, and extensively promote military-civilian integration. We will take concrete steps to ensure policies get implemented, and commit to persistent efforts to boost the resilience of development.
Third, developing a strong domestic market. Responding to the change in the principal contradiction facing Chinese society, we should strive for strong progress in high-quality development and deepen supply-side structural reform to keep unlocking and meeting demand in the domestic market. We also need to increase the potential for development over the medium- and long-term to promote healthy and sustainable economic development.
Fourth, fighting the battles against potential risk, poverty, and pollution. Staying focused on the overall objective of finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, we need to be prepared for worst-case scenarios, identify key problems, adopt targeted policies, and tackle major difficulties to ensure all tasks are accomplished on schedule and bring a stronger sense of fulfillment to our people.
Fifth, furthering market-based reforms and expanding high-standard opening up. We need to devise a series of reform and opening up measures that are good for the near term and even better in the long run. We need to work on boosting the vitality of market entities and give full play to the enthusiasm, initiative, and creativity of all sectors of society.
While fulfilling the above missions, we also need to properly balance the following three relationships.
The first relationship is that between domestic and international imperatives. We should put a strong emphasis on responding to changes in the external environment, but more importantly, we need to focus on domestic development. We need to face challenges squarely, skillfully turn risks into opportunities, and put our own house in order by solving longstanding institutional and structural problems in a prudent and systematic fashion. The second is that between maintaining steady growth and preventing risks. We need to address challenges and defuse risks while working to keep growth steady and promote high-quality development. We need to maintain the continuity and stability of our macro policies, keep the right pace and intensity in preventing risks, and avoid the building of cumulative effects that are detrimental to keeping expectations stable, maintaining steady growth, and making structural adjustments, to ensure the economy operates within an appropriate range. The third is that between the government and the market. We need to make more use of reform and innovation to ensure the market plays the decisive role in allocating resources and the government better fulfills its role. While keeping macro policies more stable and effective, we need to further energize micro entities and boost the internal forces driving economic growth.
Main Targets
Keeping in mind the above general requirements and considerations, we have set the following targets for economic and social development for 2019 on the basis of what is necessary and what is possible.
Ÿ Economic growth within an appropriate range
The projected target for GDP growth is 6%-6.5%. In making this projection, we have taken the following into account. First, taking a pragmatic approach, we have made a moderate adjustment to our projection on the basis of a thorough assessment of destabilizing factors and uncertainties affecting the economic performance. Further, taking account of seasonal fluctuations in economic growth, we have adopted a range-based projection to increase elasticity. Second, we need to maintain an appropriate pace of growth to meet the needs for job creation and provide the necessary macro environment for promoting high-quality development, advancing supply-side structural reform, and progressing the three critical battles. This projection also helps keep market expectations stable. Third, this target is consistent with the growth potential of the Chinese economy at present as well as our growth forecasts for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. Steady increases in all three industries would ensure a strong underpinning for a medium-high growth rate.
Ÿ Consistent improvements in the quality and effect of development
We will work hard to build on the progress made in the five priority tasks and keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable and fiscal and financial risks under control. We have set the following targets: Per capita labor productivity will grow by 6.3%, the contribution of scientific and technological advances to economic growth will reach 59.2%, and R&D spending as a percentage of GDP will rise to 2.2%. The urban population will account for 60.6% of the total as measured by permanent urban residents and 44.4% as measured by registered urban residents.
The environment will see further improvements. PM2.5 concentrations will drop by 2% in cities at and above prefecture level that fell short of the national PM2.5 standards, energy consumption per unit of GDP will decrease by about 3%, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will fall by about 3.6%, and emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline. Increases in urban and rural personal income will be basically on par with economic growth, the social safety net will cover more people, and access to educational, health, cultural, elderly care, and other basic public services will be made more equitable.
In giving greater weight to these indicators, which reflect the quality and effect of growth and the structural adjustments of the economy, we want to primarily ensure that we are acting on the new development philosophy, putting the vision of people-centered development into practice, and following the principle of giving priority to the quality and effect of growth. These steps will ensure high-quality development is more evident in areas like supply and demand, inputs and outputs, income distribution, and the macroeconomic cycle, and that people enjoy a stronger sense of satisfaction and happiness.
Ÿ Overall stability in employment
This year’s target for urban job creation is above 11 million, and the targets for the survey-based and registered urban unemployment rates are about 5.5% and below 4.5%, respectively. The target for urban job creation takes into account new entrants to the workforce in 2019, and allows leeway for arrangements to be made for workers displaced due to overcapacity cuts, workers returning to the workforce after unemployment, and rural residents moving into nonfarm jobs. Given our economic fundamentals and the capacity of economic growth to create jobs, GDP growth of 6%-6.5% should enable us to achieve this year’s employment target. Regarding the jobless rate, the survey-based target of about 5.5% takes account of the impact of uncertainties in the international economic environment on imports and exports and the increase in the number of college graduates this year. This target is also a reflection of our determination to keep employment stable and our policy orientation toward prioritizing employment and bolstering job security. The registered urban unemployment rate has held steady around 4% in recent years. In setting the target at below 4.5% this year, we have made allowances for seasonal data fluctuations. However, we will strive for better results over the year to keep the jobless rate at a relatively low level.
Ÿ Basic stability in the overall level of prices
The CPI is projected to rise by about 3%. This target takes the following into account. The carryover effect from last year’s CPI increase is expected to be 0.7 percentage point. Under the influence of new factors, such as African swine fever, food prices may rise; the upward trend in service prices may persist, and the possibility of rising prices for imported commodities also remains.
Ÿ A basic equilibrium in the balance of payments
For imports and exports, we have set a target of ensuring stability while improving quality. This target takes the following into consideration. In terms of what is necessary, as risks and challenges increase, a basic equilibrium in the balance of payments and a reasonable level of foreign exchange reserves will help ensure economic and financial stability and keep market expectations stable. In terms of what is possible, we believe that the predicted continuation of global economic and trade growth and China’s hosting of the second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation and the second China International Import Expo can help achieve a steady increase in imports and exports. We will also promote improvements in the composition and quality of trade, under the condition that the overall state of foreign trade remains stable and with consideration to the impact of unilateralism and trade protectionism on China’s imports and exports, particularly the uncertainties arising from economic and trade frictions between China and the United States.
